Predicting glycemia in diabetic patients by evolutionary computation and continuous glucose monitoring

Resumen

Diabetes mellitus is a disease that affects more than three hundreds million people worldwide. Maintaining a good control of the disease is critical to avoid not only severe long-term complications but also dangerous short-term situations. Diabetics need to decide the appropriate insulin injection, thus they need to be able to estimate the level of glucose they are going to have after a meal. In this paper we use machine learning techniques for predicting glycemia in diabetic patients. The algorithms utilize data collected from real patients by a continuous glucose monitoring system, the estimated number of carbohydrates, and insulin administration for each meal. We compare (1) non-linear regression with fixed model structure, (2) identification of prognosis models by symbolic regression using genetic programming, (3) prognosis by k-nearest-neighbor time series search, and (4) identification of prediction models by grammatical evolution. We consider predictions horizons of 30, 60, 90 and 120 minutes.

J. Manuel Colmenar

Profesor Titular de Universidad

Mis intereses de investigación se centran en las metaheurísticas aplicadas a problemas de optimización. He trabajado en diferentes problemas de optimización combinatoria aplicando algoritmos trajectoriales como GRASP o VNS. Además, estoy muy interesado en las aplicaciones de la Evolución Gramatical, específicamente en el dominio de los modelos y la predicción, como alternativa a los enfoques de aprendizaje automático.